A new Survey/USA poll shows Mark Dayton ahead of Tom Emmer by only two points. Dayton is up only 38% to 36% for Emmer. Horner is at 18%. It looks to me like much of the change is from Dayton to Horner. The irony is that Horner, a former Republican, could well be pulling more support from Dayton than Emmer.
When I saw that Arne Carlson had endorsed Horner (Certainly not surprising.) I thought that only gives Horner more public credibility but doesn't pull votes from Emmer. Any moderate, liberal Republican support left Emmer a long time ago. So Carlson's endorsement may well help Emmer in the long run.
As for Horner, he won't gain more conservative support because he's pro-abortion, pro-homosexual "marriage" and he's a big government candidate, calling for significant tax increases.
This is where the marriage issue could be the game changer. Just as the poll we released on Monday points out, people upset about both Dayton and Horner wanting to impose homosexual marriage on the state without a say could well vote for Emmer the only candidate who supports letting the people vote. A few points here and there could well be the difference in what's shaping up to be a tight race for governor.