Friday, September 10, 2010

Good overview of political climate and anti-big government sentiment by Vin Weber.

Vin Weber came a good overview at the Humphrey Institute of the public's mood compared to past elections in 1980, 1982, and 1994 and what can be expected this November.

He sees big Republican gains this November. Likely Republican takeover of the US House and close in the US Senate. And he anticipates continuing conflict after the election because Obama sees himself as a "transformational" figure who will push his vision for bigger government whomever is in Congress.

When Clinton faced a similar disaster in his first midterm, he famously moved to the center and “triangulated” with the two parties in the House, announcing that the era of big government was over. But Weber recalled an interesting moment from 2008 when Obama got in some trouble for stating that Reagan had been a more “transformational” figure than Clinton. Obama sees himself as similarly transformational, and he will not triangulate, Weber predicted.

“This president has a different view of himself and his place in history,” Weber said. Obama will push for more change, and the kind of change he favors will continue to expand government and cost money.

But the Republican Party is also in the midst of a “transformation,” into a less pragmatic, more ideological, harder right, more libertarian party.

Obama will face a House dominated by “people who were elected by voters who are ready to throw out anyone who votes for any kind of spending or expansion of government,” Weber said. Every spending bill that comes along will cause those members to wonder whether this might be the one that will cost them their seats the way votes for TARP and the Obama stimulus measures appear to have ended the careers of long-serving members of Congress. Once you get into that mindset, Weber said, the safest, easiest vote on any spending bill is going to be “no.”

Weber views this election as more ideological than some of the other ground shaking revolutions we've had in the past few decades
Comparing the coming midterm earthquake to its most famous recent predecessors in 1982 (Ronald Reagan’s first midterm) and 1994 (Bill Clinton’s), Weber said this is a more ideological election based on that severe backlash against the Dems misreading.

The country has “moved further to the right in a shorter period than has happened in a long time,” Weber said, which is best reflected in poll results that show widespread public hostility to government spending and public debt and a near collapse of public confidence in the government’s ability to solve problems.

He also touched on the governor's race where there are some cross winds blowing. The national mood versus democrat's passionate desire to gain back the governorship for the first time since Rudy Perpich sat in the governor's chair in 1990.

1 comment:

Merv said...

I was actually there for the talk. Shocking to hear Vin say Tom has the same view of gay marriage as Obama. Can that be true?!?