Thursday, September 2, 2010

Dayton and Emmer are tied in governor's race. Horner distant third.

An MPR poll out finds the governor's race between Dayton and Emmer is neck and neck. They're tied with 34% of the vote and Tom Horner is a distant third with 13%.

A previous Rasmussen Poll done nearly three weeks ago had Dayton up 45% to 36% over Emmer.

This poll suggests the election is anything but a done deal. A couple of observations. One is Republicans were probably right in thinking that Dayton was the best candidate for them to run against. Dayton's fringe position on taxes, to the left of Kelliher and Entenza, make him a big target especially when people are very nervous about the economy and their own jobs. They don't want to hear talk of taxes going up.

Second, Horner is really out of the running in terms of actually having a chance of being elected. The question is who will Horner be a spoiler for. This poll says at this point he's pulling more Democrats from Dayton than Republicans from Emmer. While it's hard to say what the end result will be, he's definitely positioned himself to the left in terms of taxes and social issues. He's calling for $2.2 million in new taxes and is pro-homosexual marriage and pro-abortion according to a past MPR story. That would suggest he'll continue to take more votes from Dayton.

If people view Emmer and Dayton as extreme opposites, which one will they vote for. Given our state of affairs, I don't think people want a massive increase in government and taxes. That should help Emmer. As for looking at Horner, I don't see him having a shot at winning. He's a creature of the political establishment and does not generate an image or communicate as an outsider. Horner is a policy wonk and that comes through when he communicates.

3 comments:

elaine said...

you said the same things about obama in the beginning.

I can only hope your endorcement for Emmer does the same thing as it did for Edwards.

Herb said...

Today at the fair, Tom Emmer said he would work with Democrats to solve our state's problems. But this is the same Tom Emmer who said you couldn't love "freedom" and be a Democrat. Now this from a current GOP House member: "Many Republican members are frightened by what Tom Emmer would do with the power of the governorship.”

http://politicsinminnesota.com/blog/2010/09/emmers-uncompromising-politics-style-have-alienated-some-in-gop/

Herb said...

this is the type of father you want to lead your State?

Tom Emmer was for bullies before he was against them
By Hart Van Denburg, Fri., Sep. 3 2010 @ 12:49PM
Comments (13)
Categories: 2010 Governor Race
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Thumbnail image for trippemmer6closeUSE.jpg
Is this a form of bullying? Tom Emmer isn't saying.
​Tom Emmer dodged a question about anti-bullying measures during today's gubernatorial debate at the Minnesota State Fair.

He also has yet to address the fact that his son posed for pictures next to a passed-out girl with a penis drawn on her face, and then posted it on Facebook.

Republican Emmer's values came under scrutiny when a woman called in to ask whether the candidates would sign anti-bullying legislation as governor.

"I'd have to see what it looks like," Emmer said, before reminding everyone he has kids of his own.

Yet his voting record offers a more definitive answer: Emmer is pro-bully.

Last year, Emmer voted against legislation aimed at requiring schools to develop anti-bullying policies. The bill passed the House and Senate, only to be vetoed by Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Tom Emmer has apologized for his son's July bust for underage drinking, calling it a "serious mistake," but he has yet to rebuke the degrading, penis drawings on an obviously passed out girl that once decorated his son's Facebook page.