Thursday, October 18, 2012

Romney in a landslide? This guy thinks so.

Here's an interesting take on the presidential race - he's predicting a landslide for Romney.  (I used to think a landslide was 10 to 20 points but he defines it as 5 to 7 points.)  This mirrors a post I wrote on Paul Rahe a while back.
I have been predicting a Romney victory from the beginning. In December 2011, I predicted Mr. Romney would win the GOP presidential nomination and go on to win the presidency. In spring 2012, after Mr. Romney clinched the GOP nomination, I predicted a Romney landslide victory in November. For the past month, as Mr. Romney has trailed badly in every poll, especially in the all-important battleground states, I have continued to predict a Romney landslide. Today, I’m making it official:

Mitt Romney will win the presidency, and it won’t be close.
I’m predicting a 5- to 7-point popular-vote victory, with an outside shot at 10 points. Electorally, it won’t be that close. Mr. Romney will win many states that went to Mr. Obama in 2008 — I predict wins in Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Virginia, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Indiana. I predict he will win by 100 to 120 electoral votes. I’ll go out on a limb and say Mr. Romney even will win one or two Democratic “safe states” such as Michigan, Pennsylvania or New Jersey.
Is he just blowing smoke or is this actually plausible?  I'm reminded of the Carter-Reagan race in 1980 when Carter actually led up until the final couple of weeks.  But then Reagan ended up winning by 9 points.
We'll ultimately know in a couple of weeks.

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