Thursday, November 15, 2007

Clinton v. Giuliani?

Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani are both currently ahead in their races for the presidential nominations of their respective parties. A lot can and no doubt will happen between now and their nominating conventions. There are some who say there's no way Giuliani can win the Republican nomination because he's too liberal on social and other issues. That may well be the case but if the other four major candidates -- McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Thompson -- all stay in the race despite poor performances I think there's a scenario where they carve up the social and economic conservative voters and Giuliani wins the endorsement with 35 to 40% of the vote.

Clinton still has a good lead on the Democrat side and is still the odds on favorite to win the Democrat nomination.

If this is the line up for 2008 I think there will be very disenchanted people in both parties. Giuliani, for obvious reasons, among social conservatives and other conservatives. And Hillary because she does not excite many Democrats. I spoke with one DFL elected official who rolled his eyes when I asked him if he supported Hillary. He thought she would be a disaster. For one, she has extremely high negatives among voters in general. And second, there's the sense she'll say or do anything to get elected. A recent example is her trying to play both sides of the issue on giving driver licenses to illegal aliens. And columnist David Broder raises another issue; the idea that Bill Clinton would maintain a very influential position if she did become president and the concerns people have with that. I think there was Clinton fatigue after eight years of his presidency which was marked by personal scandal and a sense of opportunism and lack of principle.

The 2008 presidential election winner maybe a case of who people dislike the least.

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