Monday, October 27, 2008

Though Obama is in lead, young people are leaning towards McCain and there are a lot of undecided voters.

One of the more interesting developments in the presidential race is data suggesting McCain is doing better among young people than Obama.

The poll by Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Institute of Policy and Politics (IBD/TMIPP) is described as the most accurate poll in predicting the outcome of the 2004 election. It's been showing Obama with a consistent lead over McCain over the past couple of weeks. The most recent poll released Sunday shows Obama with a 46.5% to 43.3% lead.

A couple of things to note. First is the large number of undecideds, 10.1%. This suggests a lot of people haven't made up their minds. It they break significantly for Obama that would suggest, an overwhelming victory for Obama or for McCain, a narrow victory.

The other interesting number is the support for McCain over Obama among 18 to 24 year old's. The latest poll shows them favoring McCain by 53% to 42% with the caveat that there's much fluctuation because of a small sample. Polls a couple of days showed them favoring Obama but the majority of days show them tilting towards McCain. If that holds up, it might well be suggesting young people are becoming more conservative. This would counter the traditional view that young people are invariably more liberal than their parents. I know polls show young people are generally more pro-life than their elders. But that could be just the tip of the iceberg.

Young people have watched the baby boomers divorce, embrace abortion and spend way beyond their means. Young people have no doubt witnessed the devastation from such behaviors. I wonder if in reaction they are becoming more conservative than their parents and grandparents. Only time will tell.

1 comment:

Troy said...

You were correct when mentioning that the poll sample may skew the results. Real pollsters report the following:

Among the factors: nearly 2-to-1 support for Barack Obama among 18- to 29-year-olds and a seasoned get-out-the-vote effort that has seen young voter participation steadily rising since 2000.

An AP-Yahoo News Poll conducted earlier this month found that, among 18- to 29-year-old likely voters, 60 percent supported Obama, 33 percent John McCain and 5 percent Ralph Nader. The poll had a margin of error of 9 percentage points.