A new Survey USA poll on the California constitutional marriage amendment finds supporters of the marriage amendment leading. 48% say they support it while 45% say they oppose it. That's within the margin of error but the trend is in the direction of those who support the marriage amendment. A September poll showed opponents leading 55% to 38%.
Support for the amendment is strongest among African Americans. Also, polls usually fail to reflect the actual support for marriage amendments. In other states, the final tally was usually significantly higher for proponents of the amendments. I suspect, because it's not politically correct to be for traditional marriage, some people won't tell pollsters their true feelings.
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