Tuesday, December 6, 2011

Good news is there's a budget surplus. Bad news is more budget deficits projected down the road.

Last week the state announced that instead of facing a budget deficit for the next biennium it is projected to have a surplus of $874 million. Legislators and other politicos were surprised, thinking we'd face more deficits given the state of the economy. They weren't looking forward to the prospect of another face off with the governor over more budget cuts or tax increases.

What was interesting is they are projecting a budget deficit of $1.3 billion in the 2014-15 biennium. That says to me there is still a structure spending problem which still has to be resolved. To reach a compromise about not raising taxes while not cutting as much as necessary the proverbial can was kicked further down the street without making the tough, structural changes in government spending. That's what happens when one has either a governor or legislature which would rather raise taxes.

One consequence of the surplus is the possibility of an even shorter than usual legislative session. It starts the end of January and usually goes until the constitutional ending day in the middle of May. I think there's actually a good possibility the House and Senate will agree to adjourn early.

Monday, December 5, 2011

Tebow mania and the religious animus of some of his detrators.

Here's a funny sport's Pioneer Press piece by Tom Powers on Tim Tebow's detractors. He points out, a bit irreverently, that Tebow's detractors go nuts because of his mention of God.

Just to be up front, I wish the Vikings had 44 Tim Tebows.

I wish they had 44 solid, respectful, genuine, caring human beings. I wish they had 44 winners.

"I'll say this: The guy wins," Denver coach John Fox noted after his team's 35-32 victory over the Vikings. "He does it with his feet. He does it with his arm. He's young, and he's going to get better."

And,yes, after Tebow's postgame news conference he thanked everyone for attending and dropped a quick "God bless" as he stepped from the podium. For whatever reason, that will get people all shook up. It continues to get him labeled as being controversial. For some, that's simply being too far over the top.

Well, it's better than being the type of fellow who gets arrested for DUIs, domestic assault and/or drug possession. Maybe people are angry because he comes into their town and kicks the bejesus (no pun intended) out of their team. Against the Vikings, he delivered his most shocking performance in season filled with shocking performances. He played the role of conventional quarterback.

"It's crazy," he said with a laugh. "I try to do whatever they ask of me, whether it's sit in the pocket or make a play."

Tebow is considered something of a wild man on the field, almost always running instead of passing and rarely even trying to avoid big hits from the defense. But the Broncos'old-time option offense was nowhere to be found Sunday. That's because the Vikings' secondary is so horrible that it made a pocket passer out of Tebow.

"However you can win, that's what we'll go with," he said.

Tebow last week carried 22 times, an NFL single-game record for a quarterback. His 468 rushing yards this season mark a franchise record for a quarterback. Yet against the Vikings he ran just four times for 13 yards. Instead, he either handed off in the traditional manner or operated out of the pocket. He did scramble a few times, but no more than Christian Ponder.

He completed 10 of 15 passes for 202 yards and two touchdowns. His quarterback rating was an astronomical 149.3. It was his best passing day of the season, yet afterward he took no credit.

"I know I had a lot of help," he said. "The offensive line did a great job, and the receivers stepped up and made me look better than I am."

"I would have bet my paycheck that he would not have beat us passing the ball," Vikings defensive end Jared Allen said.

But he did. This guy has taken a lot of knocks, but it should be noted that on Sunday the Broncos moved into first place in the AFC West. They've won six of seven since he took over at quarterback. And, again, they were behind for most of the game. Tebow gets them in the end zone when he has to.

"I don't know if we're thriving on it," he said of the comeback victories. "We'd like to have been ahead a lot earlier."

With regards to yet another comeback victory, Fox said: "Thank the Lord for some big-hearted guys."

Uh-oh, it's spreading. Get out the brickbats. Another guy has gone over the top! Another fanatic is on the loose. And it's likely Tebow's fault. There is no room in sports for this sort of talk. Keep the criminals in jail and the religious in churches, damn it.

"He is a miracle maker," said Broncos receiver Eric Decker, a former Gopher.

Now I'm beginning to read religious references into everything. Just exactly what does Decker mean by "miracle maker?"

"He's the comeback kid," Deck er said. "That's what we call him. He brings this attitude about him. He's so positive and always optimistic. That does rub off on guys. ... If we have a chance to win, we're going to win."

As for the Vikings, there just isn't much to say. They were in control of the football for 37:51 of the 60 minutes and still gave up a ton of points. They are just very, very bad. The next highlight for Vikings fans will be the draft party in April.

Meanwhile, some guys just know how to win. I find myself becoming an admirer of Tim Tebow. People who take shots at him because of his beliefs can go to hell.

Over the top? If that's what makes a decent person, everyone should be over the top. Anyone who has a problem with him should redirect their concern to the ultra-religious who strap themselves with explosives and blow up shopping malls. Then they'd have a legitimate gripe.
Tebow is the ideal role model. Morally upright guy. Helps the poor and less fortunate. Yet for some, it's that religion thing. They can't stand that.

Ramsey County judge issues temporary restraining order on unionization vote by child care workers.

A Ramsey County judge issued a temporary restraining order today stopping implementation of Governor Dayton's executive order calling for a unionization vote by child care providers which receive state subsidies.

The judge asked the Attorney General's representative who was representing Governor Dayton, why not go through the legislature to do this? The simple answer, which the AG's attorney didn't give, is because the legislature is controlled by Republicans who won't allow this to go anywhere.

Why the big push for unionization? Follow the money is my best guess. I'm told the unions would reap hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars in union dues if they were to unionize child care workers. That's in addition to further politicizing the job of raising children by injecting union politics into the process.

Friday, December 2, 2011

Dealing with income inequality -- answer isn't raising taxes on high income earners.

With economic stagnation continuing, the middle class is getting hammered. The result is calls for higher taxes on the wealthy to reduce it.

It turns out the biggest government contributor to income inequality are medicare and social security transfer payments not a tax code which is too regressive.

Columnist Michael Barone points to a study released by Rep. Paul Ryan which found the Reagan and Bush tax cuts aren't the reason for income inequality.


Ryan, a Republican from Wisconsin, makes the point that the government redistributes income not only through taxes but also through transfer payments, including Social Security, Medicare, food stamps, and unemployment benefits. The CBO study helpfully measures income, adjusted for inflation, after taxes and after such transfer payments.

Many may find the results of the CBO study surprising. It turns out, Ryan reports, that federal income taxes (including the refundable Earned Income Tax Credit) actually decreased income inequality slightly between 1979 and 2007, while the federal payroll taxes that supposedly fund Social Security and Medicare slightly increased income inequality. That’s despite the fact that income tax rates are lower than in 1979 and payroll taxes higher.

Perhaps even more surprising, federal transfer payments have done much more to increase income inequality than federal taxes. That’s because, in Ryan’s words, “the distribution of government transfers has moved away from households in the lower part of the income scale. For instance, in 1979, households in the lowest income quintile received 54 percent of all transfer payments. In 2007, those households received just 36 percent of transfers.”

In effect, Social Security and Medicare have been transferring money from low-earning young people (who don’t pay income taxes but are hit by the payroll tax) to increasingly affluent old people.

The Democrats, perhaps following the polls and focus groups, have been protecting these entitlement programs, which have done more to increase income inequality than the Reagan and Bush tax cuts put together.

What can be done?

Ryan makes three more points that may strike many as counterintuitive.

First, reductions in some transfer payments haven’t hurt the living standards of most low-earners. The prime example is the welfare reform act of 1996, which reduced transfers to single mothers but induced many of them to find jobs that left them better off economically and, probably, psychologically.

Second, Americans aren’t trapped in one segment of the income distribution. A Tax Journal analysis of individual income-tax returns found that 58 percent of those in the lowest income quintile in 1996 had moved to a higher income segment by 2005. This comports with common experience. We move up and down the income scale in the course of a lifetime.

Finally, the inflation adjustment used in the CBO analysis was the Consumer Price Index. But that tends to overstate inflation — as any index tends to do, since it measures the cost of a static market basket of goods and services. A study by Chicago economist Christian Broda found that prices for goods purchased by low-earners have been rapidly decreasing, while prices for goods of high-earners have increased. Kids’ school clothes may be cheaper at Walmart than they were years ago, while prices at Neiman Marcus keep increasing.

So if the question is how to compensate for increasing income inequality, higher tax rates on high-earners won’t do much — and could be counterproductive if they diminish economic growth.

A better way is suggested by supercommittee Republicans: Limit future increases in transfer payments to affluent households, and cap deductions for home-mortgage interest and state and local taxes, which are hugely lucrative for high-earners and worthless for low-earners who don’t pay income tax.

These proposals won’t eliminate income inequality. Much of the increased inequality comes from the huge increases for those in the top 1 percent of earners. But we wouldn’t be better off if Steve Jobs had never existed.

Keeping entitlements as they are and raising tax rates on high earners is a recipe for European-style stagnation. Ryan and the supercommittee Republicans point toward a better way.

Thursday, December 1, 2011

Where to build a new Vikings stadium - Arden Hills, Minneapolis?

The Senate Tax Committee held hearings on where a new Vikings' stadium should be built. Vikings want Arden Hills because, among several reasons, it will allow for lots of real estate development around the new stadium. Others, particularly Minneapolis politicians, would like to keep it in Minneapolis. Minneapolis has the advantage of costing less because infrastructure to accommodate the stadium is already in place.

What's interesting is the funding discussion did not include much talk about using gambling monies. Though that will change in the Senate tax hearings next week when funding ideas will be discussed.