Racial, ethnic divide and the Republicans and Democrats. Who will start to break the log jam?

This Gallup poll points out the major divide between the major political parties and the Republicans and Democrats.  Whites leaning Republican and minorities more towards Democrats.

A key question is will Republicans make a concerted effort to gain support among minorities.  If they do, that will change politics going forward. 

This is from the Gallup Poll.

This polarization could ease by the time Obama's term finishes, in three years. However, given the already large racial gap in party preferences in his first five years, unless there is a dramatic shift among whites toward the Democratic Party or among nonwhites toward the GOP in the next three years, party preferences will end up more racially polarized in Obama's presidency than in his two predecessors' administrations.

Gallup says 75% of Americans say religion is losing influence in US and they think that's a bad thing.

Here's an interesting Gallup survey.  It says 77% of Americans say religion is losing influence in America and that's a bad thing.

More than three in four of Americans say religion is losing its influence in the United States, according to a new survey, the highest such percentage in more than 40 years. A nearly identical percentage says that trend bodes ill for the country.

"It may be happening, but Americans don't like it," Frank Newport, Gallup's editor in chief, said of religion's waning influence. "It is clear that a lot of Americans don't think this is a good state of affairs."

According to the Gallup survey released Wednesday, 77% of Americans say religion is losing its influence. Since 1957, when the question was first asked, Americans' perception of religion's power has never been lower.

According to the poll, 75% of Americans said the country would be better off if it were more religious.

I don't think Americans are less religious.  Rather they've just transferred their allegiance to other "faiths".  I think man is inherently religious.  He was made to worship. The question is what will he worship.

What I think is in decline is allegiance to biblical faith.

I'm reminded of what John Adams said:

We have no government armed with power capable of contending with human passions unbridled by morality and religion. Avarice, ambition, revenge or gallantry would break the strongest cords of our Constitution as a whale goes through a net. Our Constitution is designed only for a moral and religious people. It is wholly inadequate for any other.

I believe the Bible is true and it's particularly relevant to our experience in America where our society and culture is rooted in the Bible.  The problems we see manifested in society stem from an erosion of that faith in the lives of Americans.

Trust in the media is at an all-time low among Republicans and Independents but not Democrats

Trust in the media is at a record low according to a Gallup poll.

Gallup says:

Americans' distrust in the media hit a new high this year, with 60% saying they have little or no trust in the mass media to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. Distrust is up from the past few years, when Americans were already more negative about the media than they had been in years prior to 2004.

The record distrust in the media, based on a survey conducted Sept. 6-9, 2012, also means that negativity toward the media is at an all-time high for a presidential election year. This reflects the continuation of a pattern in which negativity increases every election year compared with the year prior. The current gap between negative and positive views -- 20 percentage points -- is by far the highest Gallup has recorded since it began regularly asking the question in the 1990s. Trust in the media was much higher, and more positive than negative, in the years prior to 2004 -- as high as 72% when Gallup asked this question three times in the 1970s.

This year's decline in media trust is driven by independents and Republicans. The 31% and 26%, respectively, who express a great deal or fair amount of trust are record lows and are down significantly from last year. Republicans' level of trust this year is similar to what they expressed in the fall of 2008, implying that they are especially critical of election coverage.

Trust is lowest among Republicans and then Independents.  Not surprising Democrats are most trusting of the media.  The numbers are 26, 31, and 58 respectively.

Independents are sharply more negative compared with 2008, suggesting the group that is most closely divided between President Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney is quite dissatisfied with its ability to get fair and accurate news coverage of this election.

More broadly, Republicans continue to express the least trust in the media, while Democrats express the most. Independents' trust fell below the majority level in 2004 and has continued to steadily decline.

I found Gallup's summary of implications very interesting. 

Implications
Americans are clearly down on the news media this election year, with a record-high six in 10 expressing little or no trust in the mass media's ability to report the news fully, accurately, and fairly. This likely reflects the continuation of the trend seen in recent years, combined with the increased negativity toward the media that election years tend to bring. This is particularly consequential at a time when Americans need to rely on the media to learn about the platforms and perspectives of the two candidates vying to lead the country for the next four years.

The lower level of interest in news about national politics during this election year may also reflect the level of interest in the presidential election specifically. This survey was conducted immediately after the conclusion of both political conventions and thus may indicate the level of attention paid to those events in particular. Since this survey was conducted, Democrats' enthusiasm about voting has swelled nationally and in swing states.

On a broad level, Americans' high level of distrust in the media poses a challenge to democracy and to creating a fully engaged citizenry. Media sources must clearly do more to earn the trust of Americans, the majority of whom see the media as biased one way or the other. At the same time, there is an opportunity for others outside the "mass media" to serve as information sources that Americans do trust.

This tells me that there is a strong liberal media bias that is driving the political process and it "poses a challenge to democracy and to creating a fully engaged citizenry."   

The most effective advocates for limited government? Surprise. Obama and liberal Congress.

The effects of President Obama and the liberal Congress' push towards socialism is showing up in a significant shift in the public's attitude towards more government. The most recent evidence is a Gallup Poll showing that less than 50% of Americans don't think it's the responsibility of the federal government to guarantee healthcare coverage for all Americans nor is it the federal government's responsibility. 47% of Americans say it is. The significant fact is how much support has dropped for government involvement in health care.
More Americans now say it is not the federal government's responsibility to make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage (50%) than say it is (47%). This is a first since Gallup began tracking this question, and a significant shift from as recently as three years ago, when two-thirds said ensuring healthcare coverage was the government's responsibility.

What's significant is support for the federal government's involvement in health care has dropped 22 percentage points from a high of 69% in the fall of 2006 to now 47% in the fall of 2009. The shift has accelerated in the last year from 54% support to now 47%.

With polls, it's always hard to know what's driving people's attitudes and whether they will last. I wonder if Americans are having second thoughts about the move towards socialism, European style. If so that's a very hopeful sign because we lose lots with socialized medicine. Costs and taxes rise and the overall quality of health care under socialized health care declines.

The bottom line?

The wording of the healthcare bill the House passed last Saturday explicitly states that one of the bill's purposes is to provide "affordable, quality healthcare for all Americans."

The current poll results indicate that, with the renewed healthcare debate since Obama took office, Americans have become less convinced that it is an appropriate goal for the federal government to take on the responsibility of ensuring that all Americans have healthcare coverage. It is possible that the current debate has increased the average American's awareness as to the nuances of the various roles the government could play in the healthcare system, helping make the generic "make sure all Americans have healthcare coverage" sound less appealing. Plus, the current debate may have produced more skepticism among Americans that the government's role in healthcare could or should be this broad.

Gallup says more Americans identifying themselves as conservative in 2009.

A recent Gallup poll shows more Americans identifying themselves as conservative. 40 percent say they're conservative, 36 percent moderate, and 20 percent liberal. The last couple of years, conservatives and moderates were tied at 37 percent.

I thought it was interesting the make up of the different parties. Republicans are predominantly conservative. While among Democrats moderates hold a slight plurality with 39 percent to 37 percent for liberals and 21 percent for conservatives. Of course, what one means by a liberal, moderate and conservative is important. Looking at the political leadership of the Democrat party, liberals are definitely in control.

The poll also looked at adults' views on different issues. There was movement across the board in favor of less government, less supportive of unions, more supportive of second amendment rights, more pro-life, supportive of promoting "traditional values", and less supportive of global warming.

Americans Also Moving Right on Some Issues

In addition to the increase in conservatism on this general ideology measure, Gallup finds higher percentages of Americans expressing conservative views on several specific issues in 2009 than in 2008.

• Perceptions that there is too much government regulation of business and industry jumped from 38% in September 2008 to 45% in September 2009.
• The percentage of Americans saying they would like to see labor unions have less influence in the country rose from 32% in August 2008 to a record-high 42% in August 2009.
• Public support for keeping the laws governing the sale of firearms the same or making them less strict rose from 49% in October 2008 to 55% in October 2009, also a record high. (The percentage saying the laws should become more strict -- the traditionally liberal position -- fell from 49% to 44%.)
• The percentage of Americans favoring a decrease in immigration rose from 39% in June/July 2008 to 50% in July 2009.
• The propensity to want the government to "promote traditional values" -- as opposed to "not favor any particular set of values" -- rose from 48% in 2008 to 53% in 2009. Current support for promoting traditional values is the highest seen in five years.
• The percentage of Americans who consider themselves "pro-life" on abortion rose from 44% in May 2008 to 51% in May 2009, and remained at a slightly elevated 47% in July 2009.
• Americans' belief that the global warming problem is "exaggerated" in the news rose from 35% in March 2008 to 41% in March 2009.

Of course, the big question is how these attitudes will affect political decisions. I wouldn't be surprised if liberals in Congress try to jam through more liberal policies while they have majorities in Congress even if that means some of their more moderate to conservative Democrats lose in 2010.

Who's leading the conservative resurgence in the US? President Obama?!

Rich Lowry has a humorous and clever column on the resurgence of the Republican Party and conservative causes in general. It's not the result of a prominent conservative spokesperson or political figure. Rather it's being led by President Obama, albeit unintentionally, and his aggressive push for a liberal agenda in Congress. People appear to be moving aggressively back in the conservative direction after drifting to the left over the past few years.

Lowry writes:

In nine months, he has breathed life into the Republican Party, boosted pro-lifers, tarnished the reputation of regulation, bolstered traditional values, increased the public's desire for immigration restriction and shifted independent voters rightward. No, Obama hasn't turned back the oceans. But revivifying conservatism almost before books announcing its death could be published qualifies as a feat almost as miraculous.

He points to polling showing a resurgence of identification with conservatism and related causes.

Gallup's surveys in recent months are a long catalog of the Obama snap-back. Fifty-three percent of Americans want government to promote traditional values -- "a return to the prevailing view from 1993 through 2004." Half of Americans want less immigration -- "a return to the attitudes that prevailed in the first few years after 9/11." Forty percent of Americans describe themselves as conservative -- "a level last seen in 2004." Fifty-one percent of Americans call themselves pro-life -- "a significant shift from a year ago." a significant shift from a year ago."

The rapid shift in public views on the issues is quite remarkable. If Lincoln is right and public sentiment ultimately guides the political process then change will follow though exactly when is uncertain.

Obama is "helping" the pro-life movement?

President Obama is arguably the most pro-abortion president in our nation's history. Yet ironically he maybe helping move our nation in the pro-life direction.

Two polls out in May and August note a significant movement in the American public's identifical with pro-life positions and views.

A newly released Pew Research Center Poll found:

For most of the last two decades, a clear majority of Americans has supported the right to abortion. A new poll, though, suggests that support for abortion may have declined, with the public almost evenly divided over the issue.

The apparent shift, which contradicts some other recent polls, appears in a poll by the Pew Research Center released on Thursday. A 2008 poll by Pew researchers had found that those in favor of keeping abortion legal outnumbered opponents, 54 percent to 40 percent. In the new Pew poll, the gap has narrowed: 47 percent of those surveyed said abortion should be legal in all or most cases, and 45 percent said it should be illegal in all or most cases — a difference within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

The reason for the shift is? President Obama in the opinion of the Pew researchers.

The new survey did not find the reasons for the shift in opinion. But Pew researchers pointed out that the shift has occurred since the election of President Obama, a Democrat who supports abortion rights but has often spoken about the need to reduce the number of abortions. New York Times/CBS News polls, as well as others, found no such shift after Bill Clinton — also a Democrat who supports abortion rights — took office. Pew has no comparable data on the issue dating back that far.

Add in a Gallup poll and the shift is even more striking. Gallup found a significant shift in the number of people who identify themselves as pro-life v. pro-choice. And 60% of respondents believe abortion should be either illegal under all circumstances or legal under a few circumstances versus 37% who believe it should be legal under all circumstances or legal under many circumstances. Up from 57% to 41% in May of 2008.

A new Gallup Poll, conducted May 7-10, finds 51% of Americans calling themselves "pro-life" on the issue of abortion and 42% "pro-choice." This is the first time a majority of U.S. adults have identified themselves as pro-life since Gallup began asking this question in 1995.

The new results, obtained from Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs survey, represent a significant shift from a year ago, when 50% were pro-choice and 44% pro-life. Prior to now, the highest percentage identifying as pro-life was 46%, in both August 2001 and May 2002.

The May 2009 survey documents comparable changes in public views about the legality of abortion. In answer to a question providing three options for the extent to which abortion should be legal, about as many Americans now say the procedure should be illegal in all circumstances (23%) as say it should be legal under any circumstances (22%). This contrasts with the last four years, when Gallup found a strong tilt of public attitudes in favor of unrestricted abortion.

Though I think Obama's policies are awful in regards to abortion, I guess we can thank him for his "help" in moving overall public sentiment in the pro-life direction.

Historic drop in support of unions by American people.

I came across this interesting Gallup poll on the general public's attitude towards unions. In the past year there's been a significant drop in support. From 59% approving of unions last year to 48% this year. That's the first sub-50% total ever. Gallup began polling the issue back in the 1930s.

The 48% of Americans now approving of unions represents the first sub-50% approval since Gallup first asked the question in the 1930s. The previous low was 55%, found in both 1979 and 1981.

Public reaction to labor unions is one of the longest-running trends The Gallup Poll has maintained. Gallup first asked "Do you approve or disapprove of labor unions?" in 1936, a year after Congress passed the National Labor Relations Act establishing the right of most private-sector employees to join unions, to bargain collectively with their employers, and to strike. That first poll found 72% of Americans approving of unions and only 20% disapproving.

While approval of unions has declined since 2008 among most major demographic and political groups, the biggest drop has been among political independents.

Why the drop? Gallup points to the GM bailout and the problems they are causing companies facing difficult economic times.

Organized labor was put in the spotlight last December as Congress considered a major bailout package for the ailing U.S. auto industry. Gallup polling at that time found a substantial segment of Americans blaming the auto unions for the industry's problems, although more blamed auto executives.

Perhaps accordingly, Gallup records significant increases in the August 2009 Work and Education survey compared with August 2006 in sentiment that unions have a negative effect on companies where workers are organized, and on the economy generally.

The percentage saying unions mostly hurt the companies where workers are organized has risen from 39% in 2006 to 46% in the latest poll. As a result, Americans are now evenly divided over whether unions mostly help or mostly hurt these companies, whereas in all previous measures the balance of opinion was positive.

The percent of workers who are members of unions have dropped significantly in recent years except in the public or government sector. In education, the teacher's unions have blocked or opposed nearly every meaningful effort at school reform. Their goal of course is money and jobs for teachers not the educational welfare of kids. In addition, unions have jumped on board the radical social agenda of the left thus doing further damage to society. Unions do have their place in society but in recent times they'll done more harm than good in many instances.

Minnesota more conservative than liberal while also more democrat than republican.

The Gallup organization released a poll on the make-up of the states on the conservative-liberal and republican-democrat fronts.

On the ideology front, conservatives outnumber liberals in every state in the country. Even in liberal states like Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Vermont conservatives had one point margins.

In Minnesota, 36% of Minnesotans describe themselves as conservatives while 23% say they are liberals. 38% say they are moderate. The net conservative factor is +13. The net republican factor in Minnesota is a negative -17. That means democrats outnumber republicans by 17 percentage points.

Nationally, Minnesota is described as "somewhat conservative."

I suspect the conservative-liberal gap will continue to grow as Obama pushes his "liberal" agenda on a more "conservative" nation.

As with homosexual marriage, the public also doesn't support abortion.

Despite 35 years of judicially imposed abortion-on-debate on all 50 states, the tide hasn't turned in favor of abortion. Instead the general public is consistently opposed to abortion in most circumstances. And for the first time more Americans identify themselves as pro-life than pro-choice.

According to Gallup,

A new Gallup Poll, conducted May 7-10, finds 51% of Americans calling themselves "pro-life" on the issue of abortion and 42% "pro-choice." This is the first time a majority of U.S. adults have identified themselves as pro-life since Gallup began asking this question in 1995.

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The new results, obtained from Gallup's annual Values and Beliefs survey, represent a significant shift from a year ago, when 50% were pro-choice and 44% pro-life. Prior to now, the highest percentage identifying as pro-life was 46%, in both August 2001 and May 2002.

Additionally, people would allow abortions in only limited circumstances, not the unlimited circumstances which the Supreme Court has mandated. If those who oppose abortion in all circumstances, 23%, is combined with those who would allow in very limited circumstances, 37%, there's a strong 60% majority.

The May 2009 survey documents comparable changes in public views about the legality of abortion. In answer to a question providing three options for the extent to which abortion should be legal, about as many Americans now say the procedure should be illegal in all circumstances (23%) as say it should be legal under any circumstances (22%). This contrasts with the last four years, when Gallup found a strong tilt of public attitudes in favor of unrestricted abortion.

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Gallup also found public preferences for the extreme views on abortion about even -- as they are today -- in 2005 and 2002, as well as during much of the first decade of polling on this question from 1975 to 1985. Still, the dominant position on this question remains the middle option, as it has continuously since 1975: 53% currently say abortion should be legal only under certain circumstances.

When the views of this middle group are probed further -- asking these respondents whether they believe abortion should be legal in most or only a few circumstances -- Gallup finds the following breakdown in opinion.

Americans' recent shift toward the pro-life position is confirmed in two other surveys. The same three abortion questions asked on the Gallup Values and Beliefs survey were included in Gallup Poll Daily tracking from May 12-13, with nearly identical results, including a 50% to 43% pro-life versus pro-choice split on the self-identification question.

President Obama and his strong abortion stance may ironically be helping the pro-life movement.

Despite all the media spin, Americans aren't buying homosexual marriage.

Despite the relentless drumbeat in favor of homosexual marriage by elites and the mainstream media, the American people don't seem to be jumping on the band wagon.

A Gallup poll released Wednesday finds that a solid majority of Americans don't support legalizing it.

Americans' views on same-sex marriage have essentially stayed the same in the past year, with a majority of 57% opposed to granting such marriages legal status and 40% in favor of doing so. Though support for legal same-sex marriage is significantly higher now than when Gallup first asked about it in 1996, in recent years support has appeared to stall, peaking at 46% in 2007.

They point to stronger support among younger Americans while older Americans don't.

Younger Americans have typically been much more supportive of same-sex marriage than older Americans, and that is the case in the current poll. A majority of 18- to 29-year-olds think gay or lesbian couples should be allowed to legally marry, while support reaches only as high as 40% among the three older age groups.

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Some argue this is evidence that it's only a matter of time before broader society accepts it. I don't think that's the case. Marriage is a profoundly moral issue which I believe, people intuitively believe is between a man and a woman and homosexual behavior isn't normal. I think as the public debate continues and the facts get discussed regarding the nature and benefits of marriage and the problems associated with homosexual behavior, the public support for homosexuality and homosexual marriage will diminish in the minds of young people. We're already seeing that happen with the abortion issue where young people are becoming more conservative than their parents. I think the same thing can happen on the marriage issue.

And of course, the moral relativism which inundates our cultural thinking will also have to be addressed. The notion that I can be personally opposed to homosexual marriage but embrace it for society just doesn't hold up. Marriage is a moral, law of nature which can't and shouldn't be relativized. It's like saying I'm personally opposed to rape, murder, lying or stealing but I wouldn't want to impose my views on the rest of society. In the final analysis, it doesn't make sense.

Another thing to note in the polling is the intensity level of proponents and opponents. 48% of all people say legalizing homosexual marriage will change society for the worse. More than three and a half times those 13% who say it will make society better.

A separate question in the poll found close to half of Americans, 48%, saying that allowing legal same-sex marriages would change society for the worse. That is more than three times the 13% who believe legal gay marriage would change society for the better. The remaining 38% say it would have no effect on society or do not have an opinion on the matter.

These results are essentially unchanged from a Gallup Poll conducted six years ago.

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This suggests people who understand the nature of marriage are much more aware of the negative problems associated with its redefinition and will be difficult to persuade otherwise.

California marriage amendment gains support

A new Survey USA poll on the California constitutional marriage amendment finds supporters of the marriage amendment leading. 48% say they support it while 45% say they oppose it. That's within the margin of error but the trend is in the direction of those who support the marriage amendment. A September poll showed opponents leading 55% to 38%.

Support for the amendment is strongest among African Americans. Also, polls usually fail to reflect the actual support for marriage amendments. In other states, the final tally was usually significantly higher for proponents of the amendments. I suspect, because it's not politically correct to be for traditional marriage, some people won't tell pollsters their true feelings.

Is America a Christian nation?

The question: Is America a Christian nation? This question usually makes the Left go apoplectic. But a recent Gallup poll, which found that 82% of Americans identify themselves as Christians, makes that a legitimate question.

Legally, America isn't a Christian nation. It's not written in our Constitution or an act of Congress. You don't have to be a Christian to be an American citizen.

Culturally, that's a different and more interesting question. We speak of nations made up predominantly of Muslims as Muslim nations. So in that sense if America is predominantly made up of Christians that would make us a Christian nation.

Yet just because people identify themselves as Christians yet never darken a church door, don't believe the basic tenets of the Christian faith or live in accordance Christian teaching that doesn't make them Christians. I think that is increasingly the case in America. Barna Group has done research suggesting that around eight percent of the American people subscribe to the historical, orthodox beliefs of the faith.

And of course then there's the question of what is the influence of Christianity in shaping the cultural beliefs and mores of the nation. I think Christian ideas and ideals are still dominant though they've been significantly eroded by secularism and postmodernism. I'd say culturally we are still a Christian nation but that notion has been eroding in the past few generations.